Pick Six Tests: Despite BYU’s strong start, Arizona’s defense wins

PROVO – BYU returns to its first playoff week as one of 12 undefeated teams in the FBS, and the only team with more wins than the teams currently ranked.

The Cougars were surprised at the time—No. 13 Kansas State with a series of turnovers and a final score of 38-9. Earlier in September they kept top-seeded SMU out of the playoff spot and held on for an 18-15 victory over a team currently ranked in the Associated Press poll.

This marks BYU’s fifth 5-0 in the 40 years since their 1984 national championship, and they have moved up to No. 14 in the AP poll for their top ranking as of 2020.

Their top-ranked defense will be tested Saturday with perhaps the best one-two punch in the conference as they host Arizona (3-2, 1-1 Big 12) at noon (2 p.m. MDT, FOX). The game has some flair as BYU hosts FOX’s “Big Noon Kickoff” for the first time in school history.

Game Grader

(Opponent’s Adjusted Rating by Pick Six Tests)

Total 3 years (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | Arizona 45.3 (51st)
2023 period: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | Arizona 69.6 (14th)
2024 period: BYU 74.4 (13th) | Arizona 54.6 (38th)

The My Game Grader form is a statistical rule scale that adjusts for opponent strength and is an integral part of my pre-season and in-season evaluation.

Arizona posted their first 10-win season in a decade, broke the school record for wins, and earned their highest AP Poll ranking since 1998. Then head coach Jedd Fisch was attacked by Washington and they stumbled out of the gates this season with two losses. : 31-7 at Kansas State and 28-22 at Texas Tech. They beat Utah 23-10 in impressive fashion, so this team is different so far.

BYU defied all preseason expectations with their perfect 5-0 start, and climbed to the No. 13 in my Grader of 2024 for their highest ranking in this metric from their 2020 class.

Arizona on the ball

(Adjusted opponent rankings, per game via Pick Six Reviews)

Arizona offense (2024): 3rd of 16 Big 12 (6th passing, 6th rushing)
BYU Defense (2024): 1st of 16 Big 12 (2nd pass, 2nd run)

Arizona has the best quarterback and receiver features in the Big 12. Noah Fifita took over as the starting quarterback last season and has been productive and productive. Even though his stats are down compared to 2023 in this new offensive scheme, there’s no denying that receiver Tetairoa McMillan will be the best player on the field on Saturday. McMillan has added 304 yards in the opener and has led 12 in receiving since then. In fact, his 133 yards per game are second-most in the Power Four so far.

BYU defensive coordinator Jay Hill should be at the top of the Broyles Award watch list for the nation’s top linebacker. He made a huge turnaround here from a defense that ranked 48th (out of 70 Power Four teams) last year to the top of the conference midway through the season.

Linebackers Harrison Taggart and Jack Kelly have been stout (combined 45 tackles), Tyler Batty has been a disruptive force, and a surprising seven defenders already have distinctions. The question is whether BYU can keep up their sales pace, but so far so good here.

BYU and football

(Adjusted opponent rankings, per game via Pick Six Reviews)

BYU offense (2024): 12th of 16 Big 12 (11th passing, 8th rushing)
Arizona Defense (2024): 7th of 16 Big 12 (8th passing, 4th rushing)

So far, BYU is averaging less than 12 yards per play and rushing yards per carry but checks in at No. 6 in QB ratings. When you align with opponents, they fall into two categories, but quarterback Jake Retzlaff gets credit for extending plays (and drives) with his legs.

Last week came at a good time for BYU as their injury-riddled running back was able to come back strong for this matchup. First basemen LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati are back in the lineup, and former walk-on Sione I. Moa has stepped up in their absence.

Despite two losses, and a lot of attention on their quarterback-receiver group, Arizona’s defense has played quiet football thus far. They have held five of their opponents below their season average (yards/game); and in the win over Utah they had two sacks, seven for a loss, and held the Utes to 0-4 in the fourth quarter. This is the toughest defense BYU has faced so far.

Game statement

Back in the 1960s and 1970s, BYU and Arizona were WAC rivals. Arizona moved to the Pac-12 for the past 40 years, but the programs have since rejoined the expanded Big 12. BYU runs 4-1 in the series, including their most recent matchup, a BYU victory in 2021.

I have been very impressed with BYU so far this season and they look like contenders in the open league race. In this game, Arizona’s defense wins the game, while Fifita and McMillan will prove to be too much to handle.

Arizona 24 | BYU 21